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Halmstad vs Kalmar FF — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Halmstad
Halmstad
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
3/13/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Halmstad36%
×Draw24%
Kalmar FF40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halmstad
1.55
Kalmar FF
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Halmstad
1.60
Kalmar FF
1.88

allows per match

Halmstad
1.40
Kalmar FF
1.50

finishing

Halmstad+0.00on par
Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halmstad ↓

Kalmar FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Halmstad or draw
60%
Halmstad or Kalmar FF
76%
Draw or Kalmar FF
64%

Winning margin

Halmstad wins by 2+
18%
Kalmar FF wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Halmstad 1+ goals
79%
Halmstad 2+ goals
46%
Halmstad 3+ goals
20%
Kalmar FF 1+ goals
81%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
49%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Halmstad (draw refunded)
48%
Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halmstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halmstad attack 1.60 + Kalmar FF defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Kalmar FF attack 1.88 + Halmstad defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Halmstad scores more
36%
level
24%
Kalmar FF scores more
40%

Kalmar FF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Halmstad 0–4 Kalmar FF

Kalmar FF beat Halmstad 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on March 13, 2026.