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Halmstad vs Kalmar FF — Allsvenskan 2026

Halmstad
Halmstad
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
9/26/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 24Örjans Vall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Halmstad47%
×Draw26%
Kalmar FF28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halmstad
1.52
Kalmar FF
1.11

Halmstad creates 37% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Halmstad
1.53
Kalmar FF
1.28

allows per match

Halmstad
0.94
Kalmar FF
1.50

finishing

Halmstad-0.39scores less
Kalmar FF-0.08on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halmstad ↓

Kalmar FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Halmstad or draw
72%
Halmstad or Kalmar FF
74%
Draw or Kalmar FF
53%

Winning margin

Halmstad wins by 2+
23%
Kalmar FF wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Halmstad 1+ goals
78%
Halmstad 2+ goals
45%
Halmstad 3+ goals
20%
Kalmar FF 1+ goals
67%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
30%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Halmstad (draw refunded)
63%
Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halmstad at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.94 · 7 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.50 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halmstad attack 1.53 + Kalmar FF defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kalmar FF attack 1.28 + Halmstad defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Halmstad scores more
47%
level
26%
Kalmar FF scores more
28%

Halmstad at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Halmstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Halmstad vs Kalmar FF

Halmstad and Kalmar FF drew 2-2 in Allsvenskan on September 26, 2024.

The match was played at Örjans Vall in Halmstad.