Halmstad 2–2 IFK Varnamo: Result & Stats

Halmstad

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

IFK Varnamo

N. Mohammed 83'

V. Eriksson 36' (OG)

G. Engvall 29', 19'

7/15/2023

Allsvenskan · Round 15Örjans Vall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Halmstad40%

×Draw25%

IFK Varnamo35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HalmstadExpected goals in this matchIFK Varnamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.33

Halmstad

1.44

IFK Varnamo

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 19 away

1.18

creates per match

1.20

1.46

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Halmstad

1.18

IFK Varnamo

1.20

allows per match

Halmstad

1.46

IFK Varnamo

1.69

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Halmstad-0.22scores less

IFK Varnamo+0.06on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halmstad ↓

IFK Varnamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Halmstad or draw

65%

Halmstad or IFK Varnamo

75%

Draw or IFK Varnamo

60%

Winning margin

Halmstad wins by 2+

19%

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Halmstad 1+ goals

76%

Halmstad 2+ goals

42%

Halmstad 3+ goals

18%

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

74%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

38%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Halmstad (draw refunded)

53%

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halmstad at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.69 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halmstad attack 1.18 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.44

IFK Varnamo attack 1.20 + Halmstad defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Halmstad scores more

40%

level

25%

IFK Varnamo scores more

35%

Halmstad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Halmstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

P. Ofosu-Ayeh

Halmstad · D

7.9

Match Events

19'

G. Engvall↳ A. Ademi

29'

G. Engvall

32'

Jonathan Svedberg

34'

M. Påhlsson← M. Nilsson Säfqvist

36'

V. ErikssonOwn goal

50'

Victor Larsson

62'

H. Näsström← A. Lohikangas

63'

E. Bećirović← A. Ademi

63'

V. Bergh← F. Winsth

67'

J. Cooper← K. Karlsson

72'

Bernardo Vilar← A. Zeljkovic

83'

N. Mohammed↳ P. Ofosu-Ayeh

90+7'

Viktor Bergh

90+2'

Victor Eriksson

90'

J. Allansson← Amir Al Ammari

90'

F. Adjei← O. Johansson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HalmstadIFK

Overview

55%Possession45%

16Total Shots15

1.30Expected Goals (xG)1.37

7Corners6

6Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots15

3On Target6

11Off Target4

2Blocked5

11Inside Box9

5Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

543Total Passes461

455Accurate Passes394

84%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0