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Hakoah Sydney City vs Dunbar Rovers — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Hakoah Sydney City
Hakoah Sydney City
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Dunbar Rovers
Dunbar Rovers
G. Tuson-Firth 90+4'
J. Tran 86'
S. Tzanakes 45+3', 8'
5/25/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 16Hensley Athletic Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hakoah Sydney City56%
×Draw21%
Dunbar Rovers23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hakoah Sydney City
2.10
Dunbar Rovers
1.26

Hakoah Sydney City creates 67% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 30 away

creates per match

Hakoah Sydney City
1.84
Dunbar Rovers
0.93

allows per match

Hakoah Sydney City
1.59
Dunbar Rovers
2.37

finishing

Hakoah Sydney City+0.00on par
Dunbar Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hakoah Sydney City ↓

Dunbar Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hakoah Sydney City or draw
77%
Hakoah Sydney City or Dunbar Rovers
79%
Draw or Dunbar Rovers
44%

Winning margin

Hakoah Sydney City wins by 2+
34%
Dunbar Rovers wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hakoah Sydney City 1+ goals
88%
Hakoah Sydney City 2+ goals
62%
Hakoah Sydney City 3+ goals
35%
Dunbar Rovers 1+ goals
72%
Dunbar Rovers 2+ goals
36%
Dunbar Rovers 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hakoah Sydney City (draw refunded)
71%
Dunbar Rovers (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hakoah Sydney City at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

Dunbar Rovers away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hakoah Sydney City attack 1.84 + Dunbar Rovers defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.10

Dunbar Rovers attack 0.93 + Hakoah Sydney City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hakoah Sydney City scores more
56%
level
21%
Dunbar Rovers scores more
23%

Hakoah Sydney City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hakoah Sydney City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
S. Tzanakes
45+3'
S. Tzanakes
86'
J. Tran
90+4'
G. Tuson-Firth

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Hakoah Sydney City 2–2 Dunbar Rovers

Hakoah Sydney City and Dunbar Rovers drew 2-2 in New South Wales NPL 2 on May 25, 2024.

Goals: S. Tzanakes (8', 45+3'), J. Tran (86'), G. Tuson-Firth (90+4').

The match was played at Hensley Athletic Field in Eastgardens, Botany Bay.