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Dunbar Rovers vs Hakoah Sydney City — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Dunbar Rovers
Dunbar Rovers
FT
1 – 1
Hakoah Sydney City
Hakoah Sydney City
2/17/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 1Fraser Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dunbar Rovers32%
×Draw23%
Hakoah Sydney City45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunbar Rovers
1.51
Hakoah Sydney City
1.83

Hakoah Sydney City creates 21% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

creates per match

Dunbar Rovers
1.30
Hakoah Sydney City
1.64

allows per match

Dunbar Rovers
2.03
Hakoah Sydney City
1.72

finishing

Dunbar Rovers+0.00on par
Hakoah Sydney City+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunbar Rovers ↓

Hakoah Sydney City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dunbar Rovers or draw
55%
Dunbar Rovers or Hakoah Sydney City
77%
Draw or Hakoah Sydney City
68%

Winning margin

Dunbar Rovers wins by 2+
15%
Hakoah Sydney City wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Dunbar Rovers 1+ goals
78%
Dunbar Rovers 2+ goals
44%
Dunbar Rovers 3+ goals
19%
Hakoah Sydney City 1+ goals
84%
Hakoah Sydney City 2+ goals
54%
Hakoah Sydney City 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Dunbar Rovers (draw refunded)
41%
Hakoah Sydney City (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunbar Rovers at home — creates 1.30, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Hakoah Sydney City away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.72 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunbar Rovers attack 1.30 + Hakoah Sydney City defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.51

Hakoah Sydney City attack 1.64 + Dunbar Rovers defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dunbar Rovers scores more
32%
level
23%
Hakoah Sydney City scores more
45%

Hakoah Sydney City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hakoah Sydney City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Dunbar Rovers 1–1 Hakoah Sydney City

Dunbar Rovers and Hakoah Sydney City drew 1-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Fraser Park in Marrickville.