Hakoah Sydney City 2–1 Blacktown Spartans

Hakoah Sydney City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Blacktown Spartans

Unknown 90', 66'

Unknown 63'

6/15/2024

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 20Hensley Athletic Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Hakoah Sydney City43%

×Draw23%

Blacktown Spartans34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hakoah Sydney CityExpected goals in this matchBlacktown Spartans

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.52

Hakoah Sydney City

1.75

Blacktown Spartans

1.52

Hakoah Sydney City creates 15% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 73 away

1.84

creates per match

1.45

1.59

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Hakoah Sydney City

1.84

Blacktown Spartans

1.45

allows per match

Hakoah Sydney City

1.59

Blacktown Spartans

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hakoah Sydney City+0.00on par

Blacktown Spartans+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hakoah Sydney City ↓

Blacktown Spartans →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Hakoah Sydney City or draw

66%

Hakoah Sydney City or Blacktown Spartans

77%

Draw or Blacktown Spartans

57%

Winning margin

Hakoah Sydney City wins by 2+

23%

Blacktown Spartans wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hakoah Sydney City 1+ goals

83%

Hakoah Sydney City 2+ goals

52%

Hakoah Sydney City 3+ goals

25%

Blacktown Spartans 1+ goals

78%

Blacktown Spartans 2+ goals

45%

Blacktown Spartans 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Hakoah Sydney City (draw refunded)

56%

Blacktown Spartans (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hakoah Sydney City at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

Blacktown Spartans away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hakoah Sydney City attack 1.84 + Blacktown Spartans defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Blacktown Spartans attack 1.45 + Hakoah Sydney City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hakoah Sydney City scores more

43%

level

23%

Blacktown Spartans scores more

34%

Hakoah Sydney City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hakoah Sydney City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'

66'

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff