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Blacktown Spartans vs Hakoah Sydney City — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Blacktown Spartans
Blacktown Spartans
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hakoah Sydney City
Hakoah Sydney City
A. Booth 20'
E. Sheard 63'
2/20/2026New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Blacktown Spartans44%
×Draw23%
Hakoah Sydney City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blacktown Spartans
1.83
Hakoah Sydney City
1.59

Blacktown Spartans creates 15% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 75 away

creates per match

Blacktown Spartans
1.95
Hakoah Sydney City
1.64

allows per match

Blacktown Spartans
1.55
Hakoah Sydney City
1.72

finishing

Blacktown Spartans+0.00on par
Hakoah Sydney City+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blacktown Spartans ↓

Hakoah Sydney City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Blacktown Spartans or draw
66%
Blacktown Spartans or Hakoah Sydney City
77%
Draw or Hakoah Sydney City
56%

Winning margin

Blacktown Spartans wins by 2+
23%
Hakoah Sydney City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Blacktown Spartans 1+ goals
84%
Blacktown Spartans 2+ goals
54%
Blacktown Spartans 3+ goals
28%
Hakoah Sydney City 1+ goals
80%
Hakoah Sydney City 2+ goals
47%
Hakoah Sydney City 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Blacktown Spartans (draw refunded)
56%
Hakoah Sydney City (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blacktown Spartans at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

Hakoah Sydney City away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.72 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blacktown Spartans attack 1.95 + Hakoah Sydney City defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.83

Hakoah Sydney City attack 1.64 + Blacktown Spartans defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Blacktown Spartans scores more
44%
level
23%
Hakoah Sydney City scores more
34%

Blacktown Spartans at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Blacktown Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
A. Booth
40'
J. Bartolotto
63'
E. Sheard

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Blacktown Spartans 1 – 1 Hakoah Sydney City

Blacktown Spartans and Hakoah Sydney City drew 1-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on February 20, 2026.

Goals: A. Booth (20'), E. Sheard (63').