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Hakla SC vs Accra Lions — Division One League 2025

Hakla SC
Hakla SC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Accra Lions
Accra Lions
5/3/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hakla SC38%
×Draw29%
Accra Lions33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hakla SC
1.14
Accra Lions
1.03

Hakla SC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hakla SC
1.27
Accra Lions
1.13

allows per match

Hakla SC
0.93
Accra Lions
1.00

finishing

Hakla SC+0.00on par
Accra Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hakla SC ↓

Accra Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hakla SC or draw
67%
Hakla SC or Accra Lions
71%
Draw or Accra Lions
62%

Winning margin

Hakla SC wins by 2+
16%
Accra Lions wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hakla SC 1+ goals
68%
Hakla SC 2+ goals
32%
Hakla SC 3+ goals
11%
Accra Lions 1+ goals
64%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
28%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hakla SC (draw refunded)
54%
Accra Lions (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hakla SC at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Accra Lions away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hakla SC attack 1.27 + Accra Lions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Accra Lions attack 1.13 + Hakla SC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hakla SC scores more
38%
level
29%
Accra Lions scores more
33%

Hakla SC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hakla SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Hakla SC 2–1 Accra Lions

Hakla SC beat Accra Lions 2-1 in Division One League on May 3, 2026.