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Accra Lions vs Hakla SC — Division One League 2025

Accra Lions
Accra Lions
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Hakla SC
Hakla SC
12/28/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 13WAFA Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Accra Lions38%
×Draw27%
Hakla SC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accra Lions
1.26
Hakla SC
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Accra Lions
1.13
Hakla SC
1.13

allows per match

Accra Lions
1.27
Hakla SC
1.40

finishing

Accra Lions+0.00on par
Hakla SC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accra Lions ↓

Hakla SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Accra Lions or draw
65%
Accra Lions or Hakla SC
73%
Draw or Hakla SC
62%

Winning margin

Accra Lions wins by 2+
17%
Hakla SC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Accra Lions 1+ goals
72%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
36%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
13%
Hakla SC 1+ goals
70%
Hakla SC 2+ goals
34%
Hakla SC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Accra Lions (draw refunded)
52%
Hakla SC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accra Lions at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Hakla SC away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accra Lions attack 1.13 + Hakla SC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.26

Hakla SC attack 1.13 + Accra Lions defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Accra Lions scores more
38%
level
27%
Hakla SC scores more
35%

Accra Lions at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Accra Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Accra Lions 0–3 Hakla SC

Hakla SC beat Accra Lions 3-0 in Division One League on December 28, 2025.

The match was played at WAFA Park in Sogakope.