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Haka vs Turku PS — Ykkönen 2026

Haka
Haka
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Turku PS
Turku PS
S. Ojala 76'
E. Espinosa 80', 34'
9/19/2019YkkönenYkkönen · Round 13Tehtaan kenttä (Valkeakoski)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Haka58%
×Draw21%
Turku PS21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haka
2.07
Turku PS
1.15

Haka creates 80% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 53 away

creates per match

Haka
3.18
Turku PS
1.38

allows per match

Haka
0.91
Turku PS
0.96

finishing

Haka+0.00on par
Turku PS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haka ↓

Turku PS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Haka or draw
79%
Haka or Turku PS
79%
Draw or Turku PS
42%

Winning margin

Haka wins by 2+
35%
Turku PS wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Haka 1+ goals
87%
Haka 2+ goals
61%
Haka 3+ goals
34%
Turku PS 1+ goals
68%
Turku PS 2+ goals
32%
Turku PS 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Haka (draw refunded)
74%
Turku PS (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haka at home — creates 3.18, concedes 0.91 · 22 matches

Turku PS away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haka attack 3.18 + Turku PS defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 2.07

Turku PS attack 1.38 + Haka defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Haka scores more
58%
level
21%
Turku PS scores more
21%

Haka at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
E. Espinosa
45'
M. Aaritalo
45'
T. Varmanen
54'
A. Muzaci
76'
S. Ojala
80'
E. Espinosa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haka vs Turku PS

Turku PS beat Haka 2-1 in Ykkönen on September 19, 2019.

Goals: E. Espinosa (34', 80'), S. Ojala (76').

The match was played at Tehtaan kenttä (Valkeakoski).