Haka 4–2 AC Kajaani: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

Haka

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

AC Kajaani

8/3/2019

Ykkönen · Round 9Tehtaan kenttä (Valkeakoski)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Haka63%

×Draw19%

AC Kajaani18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HakaExpected goals in this matchAC Kajaani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.26

Haka

2.45

AC Kajaani

1.26

Haka creates 94% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 39 away

2.71

creates per match

1.64

0.89

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Haka

2.71

AC Kajaani

1.64

allows per match

Haka

0.89

AC Kajaani

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haka+0.00on par

AC Kajaani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haka ↓

AC Kajaani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Haka or draw

82%

Haka or AC Kajaani

81%

Draw or AC Kajaani

37%

Winning margin

Haka wins by 2+

41%

AC Kajaani wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Haka 1+ goals

91%

Haka 2+ goals

70%

Haka 3+ goals

44%

AC Kajaani 1+ goals

72%

AC Kajaani 2+ goals

36%

AC Kajaani 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Haka (draw refunded)

77%

AC Kajaani (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haka at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

AC Kajaani away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haka attack 2.71 + AC Kajaani defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.45

AC Kajaani attack 1.64 + Haka defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Haka scores more

63%

level

19%

AC Kajaani scores more

18%

Haka at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff