AC Kajaani 0–0 Haka: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

AC Kajaani

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Haka

6/9/2019

Ykkönen · Round 5Kajaanin liikuntapuisto (Kajaani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

AC Kajaani28%

×Draw25%

Haka47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC KajaaniExpected goals in this matchHaka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.56

AC Kajaani

1.16

Haka

1.56

Haka creates 34% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 27 away

1.38

creates per match

1.59

1.54

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

AC Kajaani

1.38

Haka

1.59

allows per match

AC Kajaani

1.54

Haka

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AC Kajaani+0.00on par

Haka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Kajaani ↓

Haka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

AC Kajaani or draw

53%

AC Kajaani or Haka

75%

Draw or Haka

72%

Winning margin

AC Kajaani wins by 2+

11%

Haka wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

AC Kajaani 1+ goals

69%

AC Kajaani 2+ goals

32%

AC Kajaani 3+ goals

11%

Haka 1+ goals

79%

Haka 2+ goals

46%

Haka 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

AC Kajaani (draw refunded)

38%

Haka (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Kajaani at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.54 · 37 matches

Haka away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.93 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Kajaani attack 1.38 + Haka defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.16

Haka attack 1.59 + AC Kajaani defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AC Kajaani scores more

28%

level

25%

Haka scores more

47%

Haka at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff