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Hajer vs Al Riyadh — Division 1 2018

Hajer
Hajer
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Riyadh
Al Riyadh
9/12/2022Division 1Division 1 · Round 4Hajer Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hajer29%
×Draw28%
Al Riyadh43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajer
1.02
Al Riyadh
1.29

Al Riyadh creates 26% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 17 away

creates per match

Hajer
1.27
Al Riyadh
1.71

allows per match

Hajer
0.88
Al Riyadh
0.76

finishing

Hajer+0.00on par
Al Riyadh+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajer ↓

Al Riyadh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hajer or draw
57%
Hajer or Al Riyadh
72%
Draw or Al Riyadh
71%

Winning margin

Hajer wins by 2+
11%
Al Riyadh wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hajer 1+ goals
64%
Hajer 2+ goals
27%
Hajer 3+ goals
8%
Al Riyadh 1+ goals
72%
Al Riyadh 2+ goals
37%
Al Riyadh 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hajer (draw refunded)
41%
Al Riyadh (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajer at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 74 matches

Al Riyadh away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajer attack 1.27 + Al Riyadh defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.02

Al Riyadh attack 1.71 + Hajer defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hajer scores more
29%
level
28%
Al Riyadh scores more
43%

Al Riyadh at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Riyadh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hajer vs Al Riyadh

Al Riyadh beat Hajer 1-0 in Division 1 on September 12, 2022.

The match was played at Hajer Club Stadium in Al-Hofuf.