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Al Riyadh vs Hajer — Division 1 2018

Al Riyadh
Al Riyadh
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hajer
Hajer
2/14/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 21Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Riyadh40%
×Draw27%
Hajer34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Riyadh
1.34
Hajer
1.21

Al Riyadh creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 75 away

creates per match

Al Riyadh
1.35
Hajer
1.00

allows per match

Al Riyadh
1.41
Hajer
1.33

finishing

Al Riyadh+0.00on par
Hajer+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Riyadh ↓

Hajer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Riyadh or draw
66%
Al Riyadh or Hajer
73%
Draw or Hajer
60%

Winning margin

Al Riyadh wins by 2+
18%
Hajer wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Riyadh 1+ goals
74%
Al Riyadh 2+ goals
39%
Al Riyadh 3+ goals
15%
Hajer 1+ goals
70%
Hajer 2+ goals
34%
Hajer 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al Riyadh (draw refunded)
54%
Hajer (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Riyadh at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Hajer away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Riyadh attack 1.35 + Hajer defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.34

Hajer attack 1.00 + Al Riyadh defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Riyadh scores more
40%
level
27%
Hajer scores more
34%

Al Riyadh at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Riyadh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Riyadh 2–1 Hajer

Al Riyadh beat Hajer 2-1 in Division 1 on February 14, 2023.

The match was played at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Riyadh.