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Hajdúszoboszlói SE vs Eger — NB III - Northeast 2019

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Eger
Eger
C. Konya 76'
G. Juhasz 47'
4/30/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 35Népkert-Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE54%
×Draw24%
Eger22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.75
Eger
1.02

Hajdúszoboszlói SE creates 72% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 110 away

creates per match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.61
Eger
1.23

allows per match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
0.82
Eger
1.89

finishing

Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par
Eger+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajdúszoboszlói SE ↓

Eger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hajdúszoboszlói SE or draw
78%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE or Eger
76%
Draw or Eger
46%

Winning margin

Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+
30%
Eger wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals
83%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals
52%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals
25%
Eger 1+ goals
64%
Eger 2+ goals
27%
Eger 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)
71%
Eger (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajdúszoboszlói SE at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Eger away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.89 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.61 + Eger defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.75

Eger attack 1.23 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more
54%
level
24%
Eger scores more
22%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hajdúszoboszlói SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
G. Juhasz
76'
C. Konya
90+3'
G. Lenart

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hajdúszoboszlói SE vs Eger

Hajdúszoboszlói SE and Eger drew 1-1 in NB III - Northeast on April 30, 2023.

Goals: G. Juhasz (47'), C. Konya (76').

The match was played at Népkert-Sporttelep in Hatvan.