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Eger vs Hajdúszoboszlói SE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Eger
Eger
FT
1 – 6
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
P. Poloskei 70'
L. Zsombor 81'
J. Mate 77', 38', 12'
N. Csiki 62'
M. Szabo 55'
10/24/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 14Szentmarjay Tibor Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Eger40%
×Draw25%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eger
1.50
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 38 away

creates per match

Eger
1.47
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

allows per match

Eger
1.23
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

finishing

Eger+0.00on par
Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eger ↓

Hajdúszoboszlói SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Eger or draw
65%
Eger or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
75%
Draw or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
60%

Winning margin

Eger wins by 2+
19%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Eger 1+ goals
78%
Eger 2+ goals
44%
Eger 3+ goals
19%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals
75%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals
40%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Eger (draw refunded)
54%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eger at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eger attack 1.47 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.53 + Eger defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Eger scores more
40%
level
25%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more
35%

Eger at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Eger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
J. Mate
38'
J. Mate
55'
M. Szabo
62'
N. Csiki
70'
P. Poloskei
77'
J. Mate
81'
L. Zsombor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eger 1 – 6 Hajdúszoboszlói SE

Hajdúszoboszlói SE beat Eger 6-1 in NB III - Northeast on October 24, 2021.

Goals: J. Mate (12', 38', 77'), M. Szabo (55'), N. Csiki (62'), P. Poloskei (70'), L. Zsombor (81').

The match was played at Szentmarjay Tibor Városi Stadion in Eger.