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Hajdúszoboszlói SE vs BKV Előre — NB III - Northeast 2019

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
BKV Előre
BKV Előre
D. Constantinescu 48'
A. L. Fardos 63'
9/28/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 10Bocskai Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE50%
×Draw25%
BKV Előre25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.60
BKV Előre
1.07

Hajdúszoboszlói SE creates 50% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.61
BKV Előre
1.32

allows per match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
0.82
BKV Előre
1.58

finishing

Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par
BKV Előre+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajdúszoboszlói SE ↓

BKV Előre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hajdúszoboszlói SE or draw
75%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE or BKV Előre
75%
Draw or BKV Előre
50%

Winning margin

Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+
26%
BKV Előre wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals
80%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals
47%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals
22%
BKV Előre 1+ goals
66%
BKV Előre 2+ goals
29%
BKV Előre 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)
66%
BKV Előre (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajdúszoboszlói SE at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

BKV Előre away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.61 + BKV Előre defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

BKV Előre attack 1.32 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more
50%
level
25%
BKV Előre scores more
25%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hajdúszoboszlói SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
D. Constantinescu
63'
A. L. Fardos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1 – 1 BKV Előre

Hajdúszoboszlói SE and BKV Előre drew 1-1 in NB III - Northeast on September 28, 2022.

Goals: D. Constantinescu (48'), A. L. Fardos (63').

The match was played at Bocskai Stadion in Hajdúszoboszló.