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BKV Előre vs Hajdúszoboszlói SE — NB III - Northeast 2019

BKV Előre
BKV Előre
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
G. Kubo 47'
D. Takacs 21'
A. Busai 3'
4/2/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 29BKV Előre Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

BKV Előre47%
×Draw24%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BKV Előre
1.68
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.29

BKV Előre creates 30% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

BKV Előre
1.82
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

allows per match

BKV Előre
1.05
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

finishing

BKV Előre+0.00on par
Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BKV Előre ↓

Hajdúszoboszlói SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

BKV Előre or draw
71%
BKV Előre or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
76%
Draw or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
53%

Winning margin

BKV Előre wins by 2+
24%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

BKV Előre 1+ goals
81%
BKV Előre 2+ goals
50%
BKV Előre 3+ goals
24%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals
72%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals
37%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

BKV Előre (draw refunded)
61%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BKV Előre at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BKV Előre attack 1.82 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.68

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.53 + BKV Előre defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

BKV Előre scores more
47%
level
24%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more
29%

BKV Előre at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "BKV Előre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
A. Busai
21'
D. Takacs
47'
G. Kubo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: BKV Előre 3–0 Hajdúszoboszlói SE

BKV Előre beat Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3-0 in NB III - Northeast on April 2, 2023.

Goals: A. Busai (3'), D. Takacs (21'), G. Kubo (47').

The match was played at BKV Előre Stadion in Budapest.