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Hajduk Veljko vs Dubočica — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Hajduk Veljko
Hajduk Veljko
FT
0 – 7
Dubočica
Dubočica
8/22/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 2Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hajduk Veljko30%
×Draw27%
Dubočica43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajduk Veljko
1.11
Dubočica
1.39

Dubočica creates 25% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 37 away

creates per match

Hajduk Veljko
1.14
Dubočica
1.57

allows per match

Hajduk Veljko
1.21
Dubočica
1.08

finishing

Hajduk Veljko+0.00on par
Dubočica+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk Veljko ↓

Dubočica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hajduk Veljko or draw
57%
Hajduk Veljko or Dubočica
73%
Draw or Dubočica
70%

Winning margin

Hajduk Veljko wins by 2+
12%
Dubočica wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Hajduk Veljko 1+ goals
67%
Hajduk Veljko 2+ goals
30%
Hajduk Veljko 3+ goals
10%
Dubočica 1+ goals
75%
Dubočica 2+ goals
40%
Dubočica 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hajduk Veljko (draw refunded)
41%
Dubočica (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk Veljko at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Dubočica away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk Veljko attack 1.14 + Dubočica defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.11

Dubočica attack 1.57 + Hajduk Veljko defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hajduk Veljko scores more
30%
level
27%
Dubočica scores more
43%

Dubočica at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dubočica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Hajduk Veljko 0–7 Dubočica

Dubočica beat Hajduk Veljko 7-0 in Srpska Liga - East on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Negotin.