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Dubočica vs Hajduk Veljko — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Dubočica
Dubočica
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Hajduk Veljko
Hajduk Veljko
3/12/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 17Gradski stadion pod Hisarom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dubočica68%
×Draw19%
Hajduk Veljko12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubočica
2.14
Hajduk Veljko
0.78

Dubočica creates 174% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dubočica
2.21
Hajduk Veljko
0.60

allows per match

Dubočica
0.97
Hajduk Veljko
2.07

finishing

Dubočica+0.00on par
Hajduk Veljko+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubočica ↓

Hajduk Veljko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dubočica or draw
88%
Dubočica or Hajduk Veljko
81%
Draw or Hajduk Veljko
32%

Winning margin

Dubočica wins by 2+
44%
Hajduk Veljko wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dubočica 1+ goals
88%
Dubočica 2+ goals
63%
Dubočica 3+ goals
36%
Hajduk Veljko 1+ goals
54%
Hajduk Veljko 2+ goals
18%
Hajduk Veljko 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dubočica (draw refunded)
85%
Hajduk Veljko (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubočica at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.97 · 39 matches

Hajduk Veljko away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubočica attack 2.21 + Hajduk Veljko defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.14

Hajduk Veljko attack 0.60 + Dubočica defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Dubočica scores more
68%
level
19%
Hajduk Veljko scores more
12%

Dubočica at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Dubočica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dubočica vs Hajduk Veljko

Dubočica beat Hajduk Veljko 3-2 in Srpska Liga - East on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion pod Hisarom in Leskovac.