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Hajduk Veljko vs Dinamo Vranje — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Hajduk Veljko
Hajduk Veljko
CANC
14:00
Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
3/20/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 18Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hajduk Veljko53%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Vranje21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajduk Veljko
1.50
Dinamo Vranje
0.82

Hajduk Veljko creates 83% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

creates per match

Hajduk Veljko
1.14
Dinamo Vranje
0.43

allows per match

Hajduk Veljko
1.21
Dinamo Vranje
1.86

finishing

Hajduk Veljko+0.00on par
Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk Veljko ↓

Dinamo Vranje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hajduk Veljko or draw
79%
Hajduk Veljko or Dinamo Vranje
74%
Draw or Dinamo Vranje
47%

Winning margin

Hajduk Veljko wins by 2+
27%
Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hajduk Veljko 1+ goals
78%
Hajduk Veljko 2+ goals
44%
Hajduk Veljko 3+ goals
19%
Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
56%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
20%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hajduk Veljko (draw refunded)
72%
Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk Veljko at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk Veljko attack 1.14 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.50

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.43 + Hajduk Veljko defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hajduk Veljko scores more
53%
level
26%
Dinamo Vranje scores more
21%

Hajduk Veljko at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hajduk Veljko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hajduk Veljko host Dinamo Vranje

March 20, 2022: Hajduk Veljko take on Dinamo Vranje in Srpska Liga - East. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hajduk Veljko host Dinamo Vranje at Gradski Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.