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Dinamo Vranje vs Hajduk Veljko — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
FT
6 – 1
Hajduk Veljko
Hajduk Veljko
8/28/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 3Stadion YUMCO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dinamo Vranje60%
×Draw21%
Hajduk Veljko19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vranje
2.04
Hajduk Veljko
1.05

Dinamo Vranje creates 94% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vranje
2.00
Hajduk Veljko
0.60

allows per match

Dinamo Vranje
1.50
Hajduk Veljko
2.07

finishing

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par
Hajduk Veljko+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vranje ↓

Hajduk Veljko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dinamo Vranje or draw
81%
Dinamo Vranje or Hajduk Veljko
79%
Draw or Hajduk Veljko
40%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
36%
Hajduk Veljko wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
87%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
60%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
33%
Hajduk Veljko 1+ goals
65%
Hajduk Veljko 2+ goals
28%
Hajduk Veljko 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
76%
Hajduk Veljko (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vranje at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Hajduk Veljko away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vranje attack 2.00 + Hajduk Veljko defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.04

Hajduk Veljko attack 0.60 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dinamo Vranje scores more
60%
level
21%
Hajduk Veljko scores more
19%

Dinamo Vranje at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dinamo Vranje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Vranje vs Hajduk Veljko

Dinamo Vranje beat Hajduk Veljko 6-1 in Srpska Liga - East on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion YUMCO in Vranje.