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Hajduk Veljko vs Brzi Brod — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Hajduk Veljko
Hajduk Veljko
FT
1 – 0
Brzi Brod
Brzi Brod
10/3/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 8Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hajduk Veljko46%
×Draw25%
Brzi Brod29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajduk Veljko
1.53
Brzi Brod
1.17

Hajduk Veljko creates 31% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 60 away

creates per match

Hajduk Veljko
1.14
Brzi Brod
1.13

allows per match

Hajduk Veljko
1.21
Brzi Brod
1.93

finishing

Hajduk Veljko+0.00on par
Brzi Brod+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk Veljko ↓

Brzi Brod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hajduk Veljko or draw
71%
Hajduk Veljko or Brzi Brod
75%
Draw or Brzi Brod
54%

Winning margin

Hajduk Veljko wins by 2+
23%
Brzi Brod wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hajduk Veljko 1+ goals
78%
Hajduk Veljko 2+ goals
45%
Hajduk Veljko 3+ goals
20%
Brzi Brod 1+ goals
69%
Brzi Brod 2+ goals
33%
Brzi Brod 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hajduk Veljko (draw refunded)
61%
Brzi Brod (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk Veljko at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Brzi Brod away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk Veljko attack 1.14 + Brzi Brod defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.53

Brzi Brod attack 1.13 + Hajduk Veljko defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hajduk Veljko scores more
46%
level
25%
Brzi Brod scores more
29%

Hajduk Veljko at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hajduk Veljko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hajduk Veljko vs Brzi Brod

Hajduk Veljko beat Brzi Brod 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Negotin.