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Brzi Brod vs Hajduk Veljko — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Brzi Brod
Brzi Brod
FT
2 – 0
Hajduk Veljko
Hajduk Veljko
4/20/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 23Stadion OFK Brzi Brod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Brzi Brod60%
×Draw22%
Hajduk Veljko17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brzi Brod
1.85
Hajduk Veljko
0.88

Brzi Brod creates 110% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 15 away

creates per match

Brzi Brod
1.64
Hajduk Veljko
0.60

allows per match

Brzi Brod
1.16
Hajduk Veljko
2.07

finishing

Brzi Brod+0.00on par
Hajduk Veljko+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brzi Brod ↓

Hajduk Veljko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Brzi Brod or draw
83%
Brzi Brod or Hajduk Veljko
78%
Draw or Hajduk Veljko
40%

Winning margin

Brzi Brod wins by 2+
35%
Hajduk Veljko wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Brzi Brod 1+ goals
84%
Brzi Brod 2+ goals
55%
Brzi Brod 3+ goals
28%
Hajduk Veljko 1+ goals
59%
Hajduk Veljko 2+ goals
22%
Hajduk Veljko 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Brzi Brod (draw refunded)
77%
Hajduk Veljko (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brzi Brod at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Hajduk Veljko away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brzi Brod attack 1.64 + Hajduk Veljko defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.85

Hajduk Veljko attack 0.60 + Brzi Brod defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Brzi Brod scores more
60%
level
22%
Hajduk Veljko scores more
17%

Brzi Brod at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Brzi Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brzi Brod vs Hajduk Veljko

Brzi Brod beat Hajduk Veljko 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on April 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion OFK Brzi Brod in Brzi Brod.