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Hajduk Divoš vs Podunavac — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Hajduk Divoš
Hajduk Divoš
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Podunavac
Podunavac
6/7/2025Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 30Stadion FK Hajduk Divoš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hajduk Divoš48%
×Draw26%
Podunavac26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajduk Divoš
1.54
Podunavac
1.06

Hajduk Divoš creates 45% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 44 away

creates per match

Hajduk Divoš
1.77
Podunavac
1.23

allows per match

Hajduk Divoš
0.90
Podunavac
1.32

finishing

Hajduk Divoš+0.00on par
Podunavac+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk Divoš ↓

Podunavac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hajduk Divoš or draw
74%
Hajduk Divoš or Podunavac
74%
Draw or Podunavac
52%

Winning margin

Hajduk Divoš wins by 2+
25%
Podunavac wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hajduk Divoš 1+ goals
79%
Hajduk Divoš 2+ goals
45%
Hajduk Divoš 3+ goals
20%
Podunavac 1+ goals
65%
Podunavac 2+ goals
29%
Podunavac 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hajduk Divoš (draw refunded)
65%
Podunavac (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk Divoš at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Podunavac away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.32 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk Divoš attack 1.77 + Podunavac defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.54

Podunavac attack 1.23 + Hajduk Divoš defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hajduk Divoš scores more
48%
level
26%
Podunavac scores more
26%

Hajduk Divoš at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hajduk Divoš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hajduk Divoš vs Podunavac

Hajduk Divoš beat Podunavac 3-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on June 7, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion FK Hajduk Divoš in Divoš.