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Hajduk 1912 Kula vs FK Becej — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Hajduk 1912 Kula
Hajduk 1912 Kula
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FK Becej
FK Becej
11/11/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 14Stadion Milan Sredanović

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula56%
×Draw21%
FK Becej22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajduk 1912 Kula
2.05
FK Becej
1.22

Hajduk 1912 Kula creates 68% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 88 away

creates per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.61
FK Becej
1.16

allows per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.28
FK Becej
2.49

finishing

Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par
FK Becej+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk 1912 Kula ↓

FK Becej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hajduk 1912 Kula or draw
78%
Hajduk 1912 Kula or FK Becej
79%
Draw or FK Becej
44%

Winning margin

Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+
34%
FK Becej wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals
87%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals
61%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals
33%
FK Becej 1+ goals
70%
FK Becej 2+ goals
34%
FK Becej 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)
72%
FK Becej (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk 1912 Kula at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

FK Becej away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.49 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.61 + FK Becej defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.05

FK Becej attack 1.16 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more
56%
level
21%
FK Becej scores more
22%

Hajduk 1912 Kula at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hajduk 1912 Kula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Hajduk 1912 Kula 4–1 FK Becej

Hajduk 1912 Kula beat FK Becej 4-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Milan Sredanović in Kula.