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FK Becej vs Hajduk 1912 Kula — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

FK Becej
FK Becej
FT
2 – 1
Hajduk 1912 Kula
Hajduk 1912 Kula
10/22/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 11Gradski stadion kraj Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

FK Becej46%
×Draw24%
Hajduk 1912 Kula31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Becej
1.73
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.37

FK Becej creates 26% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 72 away

creates per match

FK Becej
1.69
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.18

allows per match

FK Becej
1.56
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.76

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par
Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

Hajduk 1912 Kula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw
69%
FK Becej or Hajduk 1912 Kula
76%
Draw or Hajduk 1912 Kula
54%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+
24%
Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals
82%
FK Becej 2+ goals
52%
FK Becej 3+ goals
25%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals
75%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals
40%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)
60%
Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.69 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.73

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.18 + FK Becej defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FK Becej scores more
46%
level
24%
Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more
31%

FK Becej at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FK Becej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Becej vs Hajduk 1912 Kula

FK Becej beat Hajduk 1912 Kula 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion kraj Tise in Bečej.