Hajduk 1912 Kula 1–1 Dunav Stari Banovci

Hajduk 1912 Kula

FT

1 – 1

Dunav Stari Banovci

9/12/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 6Stadion Milan Sredanović

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula66%

×Draw19%

Dunav Stari Banovci15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hajduk 1912 KulaExpected goals in this matchDunav Stari Banovci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

0.93

Hajduk 1912 Kula

2.18

Dunav Stari Banovci

0.93

Hajduk 1912 Kula creates 134% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 28 away

1.61

creates per match

0.57

1.28

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula

1.61

Dunav Stari Banovci

0.57

allows per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula

1.28

Dunav Stari Banovci

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par

Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk 1912 Kula ↓

Dunav Stari Banovci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Hajduk 1912 Kula or draw

85%

Hajduk 1912 Kula or Dunav Stari Banovci

81%

Draw or Dunav Stari Banovci

34%

Winning margin

Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+

42%

Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals

89%

Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals

64%

Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals

37%

Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals

61%

Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals

24%

Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)

81%

Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk 1912 Kula at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

Dunav Stari Banovci away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.61 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.18

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 0.57 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more

66%

level

19%

Dunav Stari Banovci scores more

15%

Hajduk 1912 Kula at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Hajduk 1912 Kula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff