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Dunav Stari Banovci vs Hajduk 1912 Kula — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Dunav Stari Banovci
Dunav Stari Banovci
FT
1 – 2
Hajduk 1912 Kula
Hajduk 1912 Kula
3/31/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 25Stadion Pod Bairom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Dunav Stari Banovci37%
×Draw24%
Hajduk 1912 Kula39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.53
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 72 away

creates per match

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.30
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.18

allows per match

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.96
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.76

finishing

Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par
Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Stari Banovci ↓

Hajduk 1912 Kula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dunav Stari Banovci or draw
61%
Dunav Stari Banovci or Hajduk 1912 Kula
76%
Draw or Hajduk 1912 Kula
63%

Winning margin

Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+
18%
Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals
78%
Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals
45%
Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals
20%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals
79%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals
46%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)
49%
Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Stari Banovci at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 1.30 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.53

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.18 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dunav Stari Banovci scores more
37%
level
24%
Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more
39%

Hajduk 1912 Kula at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hajduk 1912 Kula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunav Stari Banovci vs Hajduk 1912 Kula

Hajduk 1912 Kula beat Dunav Stari Banovci 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 31, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Bairom in Stari Banovci.