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Hainan Star vs Guizhou Zhucheng — League Two 2022

Hainan Star
Hainan Star
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Guizhou Zhucheng
Guizhou Zhucheng
5/31/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 12Yunnan Kehua Football Training Base Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Hainan Star39%
×Draw27%
Guizhou Zhucheng34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hainan Star
1.31
Guizhou Zhucheng
1.19

Hainan Star creates 10% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 22 away

creates per match

Hainan Star
1.11
Guizhou Zhucheng
1.09

allows per match

Hainan Star
1.28
Guizhou Zhucheng
1.50

finishing

Hainan Star+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhucheng+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hainan Star ↓

Guizhou Zhucheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hainan Star or draw
66%
Hainan Star or Guizhou Zhucheng
73%
Draw or Guizhou Zhucheng
61%

Winning margin

Hainan Star wins by 2+
18%
Guizhou Zhucheng wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hainan Star 1+ goals
73%
Hainan Star 2+ goals
38%
Hainan Star 3+ goals
14%
Guizhou Zhucheng 1+ goals
70%
Guizhou Zhucheng 2+ goals
33%
Guizhou Zhucheng 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hainan Star (draw refunded)
54%
Guizhou Zhucheng (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hainan Star at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Guizhou Zhucheng away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hainan Star attack 1.11 + Guizhou Zhucheng defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Guizhou Zhucheng attack 1.09 + Hainan Star defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hainan Star scores more
39%
level
27%
Guizhou Zhucheng scores more
34%

Hainan Star at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hainan Star will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hainan Star vs Guizhou Zhucheng

Guizhou Zhucheng beat Hainan Star 2-1 in League Two on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Yunnan Kehua Football Training Base Stadium in Kunming.