Guizhou Zhucheng 0–0 Hainan Star: Result & Stats

Guizhou Zhucheng

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hainan Star

3/22/2025

League Two · Round 1Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Guizhou Zhucheng61%

×Draw24%

Hainan Star16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guizhou ZhuchengExpected goals in this matchHainan Star

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.74

Guizhou Zhucheng

1.71

Hainan Star

0.74

Guizhou Zhucheng creates 131% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 48 away

1.61

creates per match

0.88

0.61

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Guizhou Zhucheng

1.61

Hainan Star

0.88

allows per match

Guizhou Zhucheng

0.61

Hainan Star

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guizhou Zhucheng+0.00on par

Hainan Star+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhucheng ↓

Hainan Star →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhucheng or draw

84%

Guizhou Zhucheng or Hainan Star

76%

Draw or Hainan Star

39%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhucheng wins by 2+

34%

Hainan Star wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhucheng 1+ goals

82%

Guizhou Zhucheng 2+ goals

51%

Guizhou Zhucheng 3+ goals

24%

Hainan Star 1+ goals

52%

Hainan Star 2+ goals

17%

Hainan Star 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhucheng (draw refunded)

79%

Hainan Star (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhucheng at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Hainan Star away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.81 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhucheng attack 1.61 + Hainan Star defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.71

Hainan Star attack 0.88 + Guizhou Zhucheng defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Guizhou Zhucheng scores more

61%

level

24%

Hainan Star scores more

16%

Guizhou Zhucheng at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Guizhou Zhucheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff