Hainan Star 1–2 Chongqing Tongliang Long

Hainan Star

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Chongqing Tongliang Long

7/22/2023

League Two · Round 12Mission Hills Football Base Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hainan Star22%

×Draw24%

Chongqing Tongliang Long54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hainan StarExpected goals in this matchChongqing Tongliang Long

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.69

Hainan Star

0.97

Chongqing Tongliang Long

1.69

Chongqing Tongliang Long creates 74% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 11 away

1.11

creates per match

2.09

1.28

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Hainan Star

1.11

Chongqing Tongliang Long

2.09

allows per match

Hainan Star

1.28

Chongqing Tongliang Long

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hainan Star+0.00on par

Chongqing Tongliang Long+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hainan Star ↓

Chongqing Tongliang Long →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Hainan Star or draw

46%

Hainan Star or Chongqing Tongliang Long

76%

Draw or Chongqing Tongliang Long

78%

Winning margin

Hainan Star wins by 2+

8%

Chongqing Tongliang Long wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Hainan Star 1+ goals

62%

Hainan Star 2+ goals

25%

Hainan Star 3+ goals

7%

Chongqing Tongliang Long 1+ goals

82%

Chongqing Tongliang Long 2+ goals

50%

Chongqing Tongliang Long 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Hainan Star (draw refunded)

29%

Chongqing Tongliang Long (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hainan Star at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Chongqing Tongliang Long away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hainan Star attack 1.11 + Chongqing Tongliang Long defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.97

Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 2.09 + Hainan Star defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hainan Star scores more

22%

level

24%

Chongqing Tongliang Long scores more

54%

Chongqing Tongliang Long at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Chongqing Tongliang Long will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff