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Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hainan Star — League Two 2022

Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hainan Star
Hainan Star
6/5/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 5Tongliang Long Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Chongqing Tongliang Long70%
×Draw19%
Hainan Star11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chongqing Tongliang Long
2.08
Hainan Star
0.67

Chongqing Tongliang Long creates 210% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 48 away

creates per match

Chongqing Tongliang Long
2.36
Hainan Star
0.88

allows per match

Chongqing Tongliang Long
0.45
Hainan Star
1.81

finishing

Chongqing Tongliang Long+0.00on par
Hainan Star+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chongqing Tongliang Long ↓

Hainan Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Chongqing Tongliang Long or draw
89%
Chongqing Tongliang Long or Hainan Star
81%
Draw or Hainan Star
30%

Winning margin

Chongqing Tongliang Long wins by 2+
45%
Hainan Star wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Chongqing Tongliang Long 1+ goals
87%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 2+ goals
61%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 3+ goals
34%
Hainan Star 1+ goals
49%
Hainan Star 2+ goals
15%
Hainan Star 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Chongqing Tongliang Long (draw refunded)
87%
Hainan Star (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chongqing Tongliang Long at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Hainan Star away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.81 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 2.36 + Hainan Star defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.08

Hainan Star attack 0.88 + Chongqing Tongliang Long defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Chongqing Tongliang Long scores more
70%
level
19%
Hainan Star scores more
11%

Chongqing Tongliang Long at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Chongqing Tongliang Long will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hainan Star

Chongqing Tongliang Long beat Hainan Star 2-1 in League Two on June 5, 2023.

The match was played at Tongliang Long Stadium in Chongqing.