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Haidob En Nahud vs Hilal El-Fasher — Sudani Premier League 2019

Haidob En Nahud
Haidob En Nahud
FT
1 – 0
Hilal El-Fasher
Hilal El-Fasher
11/19/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 9El-Nahud Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Haidob En Nahud47%
×Draw29%
Hilal El-Fasher24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haidob En Nahud
1.27
Hilal El-Fasher
0.82

Haidob En Nahud creates 55% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 77 away

creates per match

Haidob En Nahud
1.29
Hilal El-Fasher
0.86

allows per match

Haidob En Nahud
0.79
Hilal El-Fasher
1.26

finishing

Haidob En Nahud+0.00on par
Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haidob En Nahud ↓

Hilal El-Fasher →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Haidob En Nahud or draw
76%
Haidob En Nahud or Hilal El-Fasher
71%
Draw or Hilal El-Fasher
53%

Winning margin

Haidob En Nahud wins by 2+
21%
Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Haidob En Nahud 1+ goals
72%
Haidob En Nahud 2+ goals
36%
Haidob En Nahud 3+ goals
14%
Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals
56%
Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals
20%
Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Haidob En Nahud (draw refunded)
66%
Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haidob En Nahud at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.79 · 24 matches

Hilal El-Fasher away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.26 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haidob En Nahud attack 1.29 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Hilal El-Fasher attack 0.86 + Haidob En Nahud defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Haidob En Nahud scores more
47%
level
29%
Hilal El-Fasher scores more
24%

Haidob En Nahud at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Haidob En Nahud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haidob En Nahud vs Hilal El-Fasher

Haidob En Nahud beat Hilal El-Fasher 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at El-Nahud Stadium in En Nahud.