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Haidob En Nahud vs Al Rabta Kosti — Sudani Premier League 2025

Haidob En Nahud
Haidob En Nahud
FT
0 – 0
Al Rabta Kosti
Al Rabta Kosti
10/10/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 1El-Nahud Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Haidob En Nahud41%
×Draw31%
Al Rabta Kosti28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haidob En Nahud
1.12
Al Rabta Kosti
0.87

Haidob En Nahud creates 29% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 17 away

creates per match

Haidob En Nahud
1.18
Al Rabta Kosti
0.65

allows per match

Haidob En Nahud
1.09
Al Rabta Kosti
1.06

finishing

Haidob En Nahud+0.00on par
Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haidob En Nahud ↓

Al Rabta Kosti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Haidob En Nahud or draw
72%
Haidob En Nahud or Al Rabta Kosti
69%
Draw or Al Rabta Kosti
59%

Winning margin

Haidob En Nahud wins by 2+
17%
Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Haidob En Nahud 1+ goals
67%
Haidob En Nahud 2+ goals
31%
Haidob En Nahud 3+ goals
10%
Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals
58%
Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals
22%
Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Haidob En Nahud (draw refunded)
59%
Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haidob En Nahud at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Al Rabta Kosti away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haidob En Nahud attack 1.18 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.12

Al Rabta Kosti attack 0.65 + Haidob En Nahud defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Haidob En Nahud scores more
41%
level
31%
Al Rabta Kosti scores more
28%

Haidob En Nahud at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Haidob En Nahud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haidob En Nahud vs Al Rabta Kosti

Haidob En Nahud and Al Rabta Kosti drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on October 10, 2022.

The match was played at El-Nahud Stadium in En Nahud.