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Haidob En Nahud vs Al Merreikh El Obeid — Sudani Premier League 2025

Haidob En Nahud
Haidob En Nahud
FT
4 – 0
Al Merreikh El Obeid
Al Merreikh El Obeid
2/8/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Haidob En Nahud47%
×Draw25%
Al Merreikh El Obeid27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haidob En Nahud
1.58
Al Merreikh El Obeid
1.14

Haidob En Nahud creates 39% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 15 away

creates per match

Haidob En Nahud
1.30
Al Merreikh El Obeid
1.07

allows per match

Haidob En Nahud
1.20
Al Merreikh El Obeid
1.87

finishing

Haidob En Nahud+0.00on par
Al Merreikh El Obeid+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haidob En Nahud ↓

Al Merreikh El Obeid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Haidob En Nahud or draw
73%
Haidob En Nahud or Al Merreikh El Obeid
75%
Draw or Al Merreikh El Obeid
53%

Winning margin

Haidob En Nahud wins by 2+
24%
Al Merreikh El Obeid wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Haidob En Nahud 1+ goals
79%
Haidob En Nahud 2+ goals
47%
Haidob En Nahud 3+ goals
21%
Al Merreikh El Obeid 1+ goals
68%
Al Merreikh El Obeid 2+ goals
32%
Al Merreikh El Obeid 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Haidob En Nahud (draw refunded)
63%
Al Merreikh El Obeid (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haidob En Nahud at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Al Merreikh El Obeid away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haidob En Nahud attack 1.30 + Al Merreikh El Obeid defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.58

Al Merreikh El Obeid attack 1.07 + Haidob En Nahud defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Haidob En Nahud scores more
47%
level
25%
Al Merreikh El Obeid scores more
27%

Haidob En Nahud at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Haidob En Nahud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haidob En Nahud vs Al Merreikh El Obeid

Haidob En Nahud beat Al Merreikh El Obeid 4-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 8, 2026.