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Al Merreikh El Obeid vs Haidob En Nahud — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Merreikh El Obeid
Al Merreikh El Obeid
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Haidob En Nahud
Haidob En Nahud
2/6/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 7Kosti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al Merreikh El Obeid32%
×Draw28%
Haidob En Nahud39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Merreikh El Obeid
1.07
Haidob En Nahud
1.21

Haidob En Nahud creates 13% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Al Merreikh El Obeid
1.33
Haidob En Nahud
0.91

allows per match

Al Merreikh El Obeid
1.50
Haidob En Nahud
0.82

finishing

Al Merreikh El Obeid+0.00on par
Haidob En Nahud+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Merreikh El Obeid ↓

Haidob En Nahud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Merreikh El Obeid or draw
61%
Al Merreikh El Obeid or Haidob En Nahud
72%
Draw or Haidob En Nahud
68%

Winning margin

Al Merreikh El Obeid wins by 2+
13%
Haidob En Nahud wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Al Merreikh El Obeid 1+ goals
66%
Al Merreikh El Obeid 2+ goals
29%
Al Merreikh El Obeid 3+ goals
9%
Haidob En Nahud 1+ goals
70%
Haidob En Nahud 2+ goals
34%
Haidob En Nahud 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al Merreikh El Obeid (draw refunded)
45%
Haidob En Nahud (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Merreikh El Obeid at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Haidob En Nahud away — creates 0.91, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Merreikh El Obeid attack 1.33 + Haidob En Nahud defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.07

Haidob En Nahud attack 0.91 + Al Merreikh El Obeid defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Merreikh El Obeid scores more
32%
level
28%
Haidob En Nahud scores more
39%

Haidob En Nahud at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Haidob En Nahud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Merreikh El Obeid 0–1 Haidob En Nahud

Haidob En Nahud beat Al Merreikh El Obeid 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 6, 2025.

The match was played at Kosti Stadium in Kosti.