Haidob En Nahud vs Al Merreikh

Haidob En Nahud

CANC

00:00

Al Merreikh

4/13/2023

Sudani Premier League · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Haidob En Nahud29%

×Draw29%

Al Merreikh42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Haidob En NahudExpected goals in this matchAl Merreikh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.23

Haidob En Nahud

0.96

Al Merreikh

1.23

Al Merreikh creates 28% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 65 away

1.29

creates per match

1.68

0.79

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

Haidob En Nahud

1.29

Al Merreikh

1.68

allows per match

Haidob En Nahud

0.79

Al Merreikh

0.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haidob En Nahud+0.00on par

Al Merreikh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haidob En Nahud ↓

Al Merreikh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Haidob En Nahud or draw

58%

Haidob En Nahud or Al Merreikh

71%

Draw or Al Merreikh

71%

Winning margin

Haidob En Nahud wins by 2+

10%

Al Merreikh wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Haidob En Nahud 1+ goals

62%

Haidob En Nahud 2+ goals

25%

Haidob En Nahud 3+ goals

7%

Al Merreikh 1+ goals

71%

Al Merreikh 2+ goals

35%

Al Merreikh 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Haidob En Nahud (draw refunded)

40%

Al Merreikh (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haidob En Nahud at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.79 · 24 matches

Al Merreikh away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.62 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haidob En Nahud attack 1.29 + Al Merreikh defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.96

Al Merreikh attack 1.68 + Haidob En Nahud defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Haidob En Nahud scores more

29%

level

29%

Al Merreikh scores more

42%

Al Merreikh at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Merreikh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff