Al Merreikh 1–1 Haidob En Nahud: Result & Stats

Al Merreikh

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Haidob En Nahud

12/5/2022

Sudani Premier League · Round 12Kober Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Al Merreikh57%

×Draw26%

Haidob En Nahud17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al MerreikhExpected goals in this matchHaidob En Nahud

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.72

Al Merreikh

1.54

Haidob En Nahud

0.72

Al Merreikh creates 114% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 24 away

1.95

creates per match

1.00

0.44

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Al Merreikh

1.95

Haidob En Nahud

1.00

allows per match

Al Merreikh

0.44

Haidob En Nahud

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Merreikh+0.00on par

Haidob En Nahud+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Merreikh ↓

Haidob En Nahud →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al Merreikh or draw

83%

Al Merreikh or Haidob En Nahud

74%

Draw or Haidob En Nahud

43%

Winning margin

Al Merreikh wins by 2+

30%

Haidob En Nahud wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Al Merreikh 1+ goals

79%

Al Merreikh 2+ goals

45%

Al Merreikh 3+ goals

20%

Haidob En Nahud 1+ goals

51%

Haidob En Nahud 2+ goals

16%

Haidob En Nahud 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Al Merreikh (draw refunded)

77%

Haidob En Nahud (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Merreikh at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.44 · 78 matches

Haidob En Nahud away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Merreikh attack 1.95 + Haidob En Nahud defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.54

Haidob En Nahud attack 1.00 + Al Merreikh defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Al Merreikh scores more

57%

level

26%

Haidob En Nahud scores more

17%

Al Merreikh at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Al Merreikh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff