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Haidob En Nahud vs Al-Ahly Merowe — Sudani Premier League 2019

Haidob En Nahud
Haidob En Nahud
FT
2 – 0
Al-Ahly Merowe
Al-Ahly Merowe
3/1/2023Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 20El-Nahud Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Haidob En Nahud50%
×Draw29%
Al-Ahly Merowe21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haidob En Nahud
1.32
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.74

Haidob En Nahud creates 78% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 74 away

creates per match

Haidob En Nahud
1.29
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.70

allows per match

Haidob En Nahud
0.79
Al-Ahly Merowe
1.35

finishing

Haidob En Nahud+0.00on par
Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haidob En Nahud ↓

Al-Ahly Merowe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Haidob En Nahud or draw
79%
Haidob En Nahud or Al-Ahly Merowe
71%
Draw or Al-Ahly Merowe
50%

Winning margin

Haidob En Nahud wins by 2+
24%
Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Haidob En Nahud 1+ goals
73%
Haidob En Nahud 2+ goals
38%
Haidob En Nahud 3+ goals
15%
Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals
52%
Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals
17%
Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Haidob En Nahud (draw refunded)
71%
Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haidob En Nahud at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.79 · 24 matches

Al-Ahly Merowe away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.35 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haidob En Nahud attack 1.29 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.70 + Haidob En Nahud defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Haidob En Nahud scores more
50%
level
29%
Al-Ahly Merowe scores more
21%

Haidob En Nahud at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Haidob En Nahud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Haidob En Nahud 2–0 Al-Ahly Merowe

Haidob En Nahud beat Al-Ahly Merowe 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on March 1, 2023.

The match was played at El-Nahud Stadium in En Nahud.