Al-Ahly Merowe 0–2 Haidob En Nahud: Result & Stats

Al-Ahly Merowe

FT

0 – 2

Haidob En Nahud

10/21/2022

Sudani Premier League · Round 3Karima Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Al-Ahly Merowe36%

×Draw31%

Haidob En Nahud33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahly MeroweExpected goals in this matchHaidob En Nahud

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.97

Al-Ahly Merowe

1.03

Haidob En Nahud

0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 24 away

0.94

creates per match

1.00

0.93

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.94

Haidob En Nahud

1.00

allows per match

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.93

Haidob En Nahud

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Haidob En Nahud+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahly Merowe ↓

Haidob En Nahud →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al-Ahly Merowe or draw

67%

Al-Ahly Merowe or Haidob En Nahud

69%

Draw or Haidob En Nahud

64%

Winning margin

Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+

14%

Haidob En Nahud wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals

64%

Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals

28%

Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals

9%

Haidob En Nahud 1+ goals

62%

Haidob En Nahud 2+ goals

25%

Haidob En Nahud 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)

52%

Haidob En Nahud (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahly Merowe at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.93 · 82 matches

Haidob En Nahud away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.94 + Haidob En Nahud defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Haidob En Nahud attack 1.00 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al-Ahly Merowe scores more

36%

level

31%

Haidob En Nahud scores more

33%

Al-Ahly Merowe at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al-Ahly Merowe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff