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Hafia vs Etoile DU Sahel — CAF Champions League 2019

Hafia
Hafia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Etoile DU Sahel
Etoile DU Sahel
M. Sacca 90+4'
I. Sylla 10'
K. Aribi 2'
8/11/2019CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Preliminary RoundStade du 28 Septembre (Conakry)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hafia43%
×Draw32%
Etoile DU Sahel25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hafia
1.10
Etoile DU Sahel
0.77

Hafia creates 43% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hafia
1.00
Etoile DU Sahel
0.87

allows per match

Hafia
0.67
Etoile DU Sahel
1.20

finishing

Hafia+0.00on par
Etoile DU Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hafia ↓

Etoile DU Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Hafia or draw
75%
Hafia or Etoile DU Sahel
68%
Draw or Etoile DU Sahel
57%

Winning margin

Hafia wins by 2+
18%
Etoile DU Sahel wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hafia 1+ goals
67%
Hafia 2+ goals
30%
Hafia 3+ goals
10%
Etoile DU Sahel 1+ goals
54%
Etoile DU Sahel 2+ goals
18%
Etoile DU Sahel 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hafia (draw refunded)
63%
Etoile DU Sahel (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hafia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Etoile DU Sahel away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hafia attack 1.00 + Etoile DU Sahel defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Etoile DU Sahel attack 0.87 + Hafia defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hafia scores more
43%
level
32%
Etoile DU Sahel scores more
25%

Hafia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hafia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
K. Aribi
10'
I. Sylla
90+4'
M. Sacca

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Hafia 2–1 Etoile DU Sahel

Hafia beat Etoile DU Sahel 2-1 in CAF Champions League on August 11, 2019.

Goals: K. Aribi (2'), I. Sylla (10'), M. Sacca (90+4').

The match was played at Stade du 28 Septembre (Conakry).