Etoile DU Sahel 7–1 Hafia: Result & Stats

Etoile DU Sahel

FT

7 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hafia

K. Aribi 85', 55', 52', 47'

M. Ben Larbi 62', 51' (pen)

M. Ben Ouannes 38' (pen)

K. Bidimbou 53'

8/24/2019

CAF Champions League · Preliminary RoundStade Mustapha Ben Jannet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Etoile DU Sahel78%

×Draw14%

Hafia9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Etoile DU SahelExpected goals in this matchHafia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.80

0.83

Etoile DU Sahel

2.80

Hafia

0.83

Etoile DU Sahel creates 237% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

1.60

creates per match

1.00

0.67

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Etoile DU Sahel

1.60

Hafia

1.00

allows per match

Etoile DU Sahel

0.67

Hafia

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etoile DU Sahel+0.00on par

Hafia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile DU Sahel ↓

Hafia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Etoile DU Sahel or draw

91%

Etoile DU Sahel or Hafia

86%

Draw or Hafia

22%

Winning margin

Etoile DU Sahel wins by 2+

57%

Hafia wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Etoile DU Sahel 1+ goals

94%

Etoile DU Sahel 2+ goals

76%

Etoile DU Sahel 3+ goals

52%

Hafia 1+ goals

56%

Hafia 2+ goals

20%

Hafia 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Etoile DU Sahel (draw refunded)

90%

Hafia (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile DU Sahel at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Hafia away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile DU Sahel attack 1.60 + Hafia defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.80

Hafia attack 1.00 + Etoile DU Sahel defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Etoile DU Sahel scores more

78%

level

14%

Hafia scores more

9%

Etoile DU Sahel at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Etoile DU Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

M. Ben OuannesPenalty

47'

K. Aribi

51'

M. Ben LarbiPenalty

52'

53'

55'

62'

85'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff