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Hadiya Hosaena vs Bahardar — Premier League 2019

Hadiya Hosaena
Hadiya Hosaena
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bahardar
Bahardar
3/10/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Hadiya Hosaena30%
×Draw30%
Bahardar40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hadiya Hosaena
0.94
Bahardar
1.13

Bahardar creates 20% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 103 away

creates per match

Hadiya Hosaena
1.03
Bahardar
1.16

allows per match

Hadiya Hosaena
1.09
Bahardar
0.85

finishing

Hadiya Hosaena+0.00on par
Bahardar+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hadiya Hosaena ↓

Bahardar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hadiya Hosaena or draw
60%
Hadiya Hosaena or Bahardar
70%
Draw or Bahardar
70%

Winning margin

Hadiya Hosaena wins by 2+
11%
Bahardar wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hadiya Hosaena 1+ goals
61%
Hadiya Hosaena 2+ goals
24%
Hadiya Hosaena 3+ goals
7%
Bahardar 1+ goals
68%
Bahardar 2+ goals
31%
Bahardar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hadiya Hosaena (draw refunded)
43%
Bahardar (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hadiya Hosaena at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 101 matches

Bahardar away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hadiya Hosaena attack 1.03 + Bahardar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.94

Bahardar attack 1.16 + Hadiya Hosaena defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hadiya Hosaena scores more
30%
level
30%
Bahardar scores more
40%

Bahardar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bahardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hadiya Hosaena 0 – 1 Bahardar

Bahardar beat Hadiya Hosaena 1-0 in Premier League on March 10, 2025.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.