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Bahardar vs Hadiya Hosaena — Premier League 2019

Bahardar
Bahardar
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hadiya Hosaena
Hadiya Hosaena
4/18/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Bahardar37%
×Draw32%
Hadiya Hosaena32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahardar
1.01
Hadiya Hosaena
0.91

Bahardar creates 11% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 102 away

creates per match

Bahardar
1.12
Hadiya Hosaena
0.87

allows per match

Bahardar
0.94
Hadiya Hosaena
0.90

finishing

Bahardar+0.00on par
Hadiya Hosaena+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahardar ↓

Hadiya Hosaena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bahardar or draw
68%
Bahardar or Hadiya Hosaena
68%
Draw or Hadiya Hosaena
63%

Winning margin

Bahardar wins by 2+
14%
Hadiya Hosaena wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bahardar 1+ goals
64%
Bahardar 2+ goals
27%
Bahardar 3+ goals
8%
Hadiya Hosaena 1+ goals
60%
Hadiya Hosaena 2+ goals
23%
Hadiya Hosaena 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bahardar (draw refunded)
54%
Hadiya Hosaena (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahardar at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Hadiya Hosaena away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.90 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahardar attack 1.12 + Hadiya Hosaena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Hadiya Hosaena attack 0.87 + Bahardar defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bahardar scores more
37%
level
32%
Hadiya Hosaena scores more
32%

Bahardar at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bahardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bahardar 0–0 Hadiya Hosaena

Bahardar and Hadiya Hosaena drew 0-0 in Premier League on April 18, 2024.

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.