Hadiya Hosaena 0–1 Addis Ababa Ketema

Hadiya Hosaena

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Addis Ababa Ketema

12/3/2021

Premier League · Round 6Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hadiya Hosaena37%

×Draw28%

Addis Ababa Ketema35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hadiya HosaenaExpected goals in this matchAddis Ababa Ketema

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.15

Hadiya Hosaena

1.18

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 15 away

1.03

creates per match

1.20

1.09

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Hadiya Hosaena

1.03

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.20

allows per match

Hadiya Hosaena

1.09

Addis Ababa Ketema

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hadiya Hosaena+0.00on par

Addis Ababa Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hadiya Hosaena ↓

Addis Ababa Ketema →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hadiya Hosaena or draw

65%

Hadiya Hosaena or Addis Ababa Ketema

72%

Draw or Addis Ababa Ketema

63%

Winning margin

Hadiya Hosaena wins by 2+

15%

Addis Ababa Ketema wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hadiya Hosaena 1+ goals

69%

Hadiya Hosaena 2+ goals

33%

Hadiya Hosaena 3+ goals

12%

Addis Ababa Ketema 1+ goals

68%

Addis Ababa Ketema 2+ goals

32%

Addis Ababa Ketema 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hadiya Hosaena (draw refunded)

51%

Addis Ababa Ketema (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hadiya Hosaena at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 101 matches

Addis Ababa Ketema away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hadiya Hosaena attack 1.03 + Addis Ababa Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Addis Ababa Ketema attack 1.20 + Hadiya Hosaena defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hadiya Hosaena scores more

37%

level

28%

Addis Ababa Ketema scores more

35%

Hadiya Hosaena at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hadiya Hosaena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff