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Addis Ababa Ketema vs Hadiya Hosaena — Premier League 2019

Addis Ababa Ketema
Addis Ababa Ketema
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 2
Hadiya Hosaena
Hadiya Hosaena
5/2/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Addis Ababa Ketema33%
×Draw29%
Hadiya Hosaena38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Addis Ababa Ketema
1.08
Hadiya Hosaena
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 102 away

creates per match

Addis Ababa Ketema
1.27
Hadiya Hosaena
0.87

allows per match

Addis Ababa Ketema
1.47
Hadiya Hosaena
0.90

finishing

Addis Ababa Ketema+0.00on par
Hadiya Hosaena+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Addis Ababa Ketema ↓

Hadiya Hosaena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Addis Ababa Ketema or draw
62%
Addis Ababa Ketema or Hadiya Hosaena
71%
Draw or Hadiya Hosaena
67%

Winning margin

Addis Ababa Ketema wins by 2+
13%
Hadiya Hosaena wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Addis Ababa Ketema 1+ goals
66%
Addis Ababa Ketema 2+ goals
29%
Addis Ababa Ketema 3+ goals
10%
Hadiya Hosaena 1+ goals
69%
Hadiya Hosaena 2+ goals
33%
Hadiya Hosaena 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Addis Ababa Ketema (draw refunded)
47%
Hadiya Hosaena (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Addis Ababa Ketema at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Hadiya Hosaena away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.90 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Addis Ababa Ketema attack 1.27 + Hadiya Hosaena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.08

Hadiya Hosaena attack 0.87 + Addis Ababa Ketema defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Addis Ababa Ketema scores more
33%
level
29%
Hadiya Hosaena scores more
38%

Hadiya Hosaena at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hadiya Hosaena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Addis Ababa Ketema 3 – 3 Hadiya Hosaena

Addis Ababa Ketema and Hadiya Hosaena drew 3-3 in Premier League on May 2, 2022.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.