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Häcken W vs Alingsås W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Häcken W
Häcken W
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Alingsås W
Alingsås W
H. Sampaio 70'
A. Bergstrom 62'
E. Ostlund 60'
K. Lundin 58' (OG)
M. Jusu Bah 44'
F. Schroder 20'
K. Lundin 63'
5/16/2025DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 8Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Häcken W87%
×Draw9%
Alingsås W4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Häcken W
3.38
Alingsås W
0.66

Häcken W creates 412% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 14 away

creates per match

Häcken W
2.91
Alingsås W
0.64

allows per match

Häcken W
0.68
Alingsås W
3.86

finishing

Häcken W+0.00on par
Alingsås W+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Häcken W ↓

Alingsås W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Häcken W or draw
96%
Häcken W or Alingsås W
91%
Draw or Alingsås W
13%

Winning margin

Häcken W wins by 2+
70%
Alingsås W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Häcken W 1+ goals
96%
Häcken W 2+ goals
84%
Häcken W 3+ goals
64%
Alingsås W 1+ goals
48%
Alingsås W 2+ goals
14%
Alingsås W 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Häcken W (draw refunded)
95%
Alingsås W (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Häcken W at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.68 · 57 matches

Alingsås W away — creates 0.64, concedes 3.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Häcken W attack 2.91 + Alingsås W defence 3.86 → ÷2 → 3.38

Alingsås W attack 0.64 + Häcken W defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Häcken W scores more
87%
level
9%
Alingsås W scores more
4%

Häcken W at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Häcken W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
A. BergstromHäcken WHäcken W · M
8.5

Match Events

20'
F. Schroder↳ A. Anvegard
44'
M. Jusu Bah↳ F. Schroder
47'
T. Karlsson← M. M. Larsson M.
55'
T. Tindell← H. Wijk
56'
M. Nilden← A. Anvegard
56'
H. Sampaio← C. Wickenheiser
58'
K. LundinOwn goal
60'
E. Ostlund↳ M. Nilden
62'
A. Bergstrom↳ F. Schroder
63'
K. Lundin
66'
P. Nystrom← F. Schroder
66'
A. Roholt← S. Fredgren
66'
I. Osterlind← M. Ohman
67'
A. Oberg← I. Svanstrom
70'
H. Sampaio↳ A. Bergstrom
79'
E. Byrnak← E. Ostlund
82'
F. Hopkins← K. Lundin

Possession

57%Häcken

Shots

28Häcken

Pass accuracy

51%Häcken

Statistics

HäckenAlingsås
Overview
57%Possession43%
28Total Shots9
3.96Expected Goals (xG)0.41
12Corners0
6Fouls3
Shots
28Total Shots9
12On Target1
8Off Target6
6Blocked2
18Inside Box4
10Outside Box5
Passing
57%Possession43%
533Total Passes322
435Accurate Passes250
82%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
0Saves7
Discipline
6Fouls3
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
3Offsides0

Damallsvenskan: Häcken W 6–1 Alingsås W

Häcken W beat Alingsås W 6-1 in Damallsvenskan on May 16, 2025.

Goals: F. Schroder (20'), M. Jusu Bah (44'), K. Lundin (58' o.g., 63'), E. Ostlund (60'), A. Bergstrom (62'), H. Sampaio (70').

Häcken W controlled possession (57%) and registered 28 shots to 9.

The match was played at Bravida Arena.