Alingsås W 0–2 Häcken W: Result & Stats

Alingsås W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Häcken W

A. Anvegard 83' (pen)

S. Sandbech 45'

10/4/2025

Damallsvenskan · Round 21Mjörnvallen Idrottsplats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alingsås W10%

×Draw18%

Häcken W72%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alingsås WExpected goals in this matchHäcken W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.68

2.21

Alingsås W

0.68

Häcken W

2.21

Häcken W creates 225% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 58 away

0.71

creates per match

2.28

2.14

allows per match

0.64

creates per match

Alingsås W

0.71

Häcken W

2.28

allows per match

Alingsås W

2.14

Häcken W

0.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alingsås W+0.00on par

Häcken W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alingsås W ↓

Häcken W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–214%

0–310%

0–46%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Alingsås W or draw

28%

Alingsås W or Häcken W

82%

Draw or Häcken W

90%

Winning margin

Alingsås W wins by 2+

3%

Häcken W wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

Alingsås W 1+ goals

49%

Alingsås W 2+ goals

15%

Alingsås W 3+ goals

3%

Häcken W 1+ goals

89%

Häcken W 2+ goals

65%

Häcken W 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Alingsås W (draw refunded)

12%

Häcken W (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alingsås W at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.14 · 14 matches

Häcken W away — creates 2.28, concedes 0.64 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alingsås W attack 0.71 + Häcken W defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.68

Häcken W attack 2.28 + Alingsås W defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Alingsås W scores more

10%

level

18%

Häcken W scores more

72%

Häcken W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Häcken W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

S. Sandbech

Häcken W · D

8.3

Match Events

45'

S. Sandbech↳ P. Nystrom

55'

M. Ohman← E. Tulkki

58'

C. Wickenheiser← H. Sampaio

59'

A. Anvegard← M. Nilden

59'

N. Akgun← P. Nystrom

67'

M. Jusu Bah← F. Schroder

71'

Johanna Barth

75'

A. Roholt← A. Oberg

83'

A. AnvegardPenalty

88'

A. Selerud← A. Bergstrom

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlingsåsHäcken

Overview

43%Possession57%

5Total Shots30

0.32Expected Goals (xG)4.05

1Corners4

13Fouls5

Shots

5Total Shots30

4On Target11

0Off Target14

1Blocked4

3Inside Box16

2Outside Box14

Passing

43%Possession57%

352Total Passes430

245Accurate Passes322

70%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

9Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls5

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

1Offsides6