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Ha Noi vs Binh Duong — V.League 1 2019

Ha Noi
Ha Noi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Binh Duong
Binh Duong
11/14/2024V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 8Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Ha Noi56%
×Draw23%
Binh Duong21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ha Noi
1.81
Binh Duong
1.00

Ha Noi creates 81% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 92 away

creates per match

Ha Noi
2.11
Binh Duong
1.01

allows per match

Ha Noi
0.99
Binh Duong
1.51

finishing

Ha Noi+0.00on par
Binh Duong+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ha Noi ↓

Binh Duong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ha Noi or draw
79%
Ha Noi or Binh Duong
77%
Draw or Binh Duong
44%

Winning margin

Ha Noi wins by 2+
32%
Binh Duong wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ha Noi 1+ goals
84%
Ha Noi 2+ goals
54%
Ha Noi 3+ goals
27%
Binh Duong 1+ goals
63%
Binh Duong 2+ goals
26%
Binh Duong 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ha Noi (draw refunded)
73%
Binh Duong (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ha Noi at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.99 · 91 matches

Binh Duong away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.51 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ha Noi attack 2.11 + Binh Duong defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.81

Binh Duong attack 1.01 + Ha Noi defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ha Noi scores more
56%
level
23%
Binh Duong scores more
21%

Ha Noi at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ha Noi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ha Noi 1 – 0 Binh Duong

Ha Noi beat Binh Duong 1-0 in V.League 1 on November 14, 2024.

The match was played at Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy in Hanoi.